Māori economist Dr Matthew Roskruge says we could see another urban migration post-lockdown as whānau impacted by the tourism industry struggle to get back to business. But there's potential for a reverse migration as the success of working-from-home may give many Māori the opportunity to return closer to their marae.
Massey University Economics Senior Lecturer Dr. Matthew Roskurge (Ngāti Tama, Te Āti Awa) predicts New Zealand is on track for a two-speed recovery as the country continues to adjust with the effects of COVID-19.
"Parts of the economy that are involved in the movement of people, or personal services are likely to have a big slow down. Whereas parts of the economy that are moving product particularly anything in food, in protein which New Zealand is so great at producing - boom times!"
He believes the Māori economy will be on a similar path, particularly as the return of international tourists appears to be months away at the very earliest.
"If you think Rotorua around some of the tourism ventures there, they're just going to empty for the next few months up to the next year or two. Whereas parts of the Māori economy that are shipping foodstuffs, I think forestry will pick back up they should be OK or even booming."
As a result, Dr. Roskruge says it's possible that domestic migration could occur, similar to the urban migration of last-century that saw the majority of Māori flock to urban cities, as people look for new employment or industry opportunities.
"I think we'll see as well some economic migrants. Where people that were working in tourism in the regions might move to the cities and queue for city work in warehouses and distribution, those sorts of jobs," Roskruge says.
However, unlike 80 years ago, some of the domestic migration could be people headed back to their homelands as the realities of working from home set in and workers realise they no longer need to be in the concrete jungle to do their job effectively.
"Working from home, and even the lockdown has provided an opportunity for people to go back home, out of the cities, go back and stay near their marae and with their whānau. So I wonder whether if we're moving into a world that's more comfortable with working from home whether that means more Māori will be comfortable migrating back out of the cities and back towards home," he says.
However, Dr Roskruge points out that in the ever-changing world that is becoming the new normal, things could very much be different again in another six months time.