500 new Māori Covid cases projected this week - Dr Rawiri Taonui

By Te Ao - Māori News

By Māori health researcher Dr Rawiri Taonui, in partnership with Te Ao Māori News.

Of the 109 new cases in the Delta OutBreak reported yesterday, 51 Māori cases. Māori are the highest daily cases for the 22nd consecutive day. The highest five days for Māori have come over the last week. The number of Māori cases has more than doubled over the last fortnight from 388 on 11 October to 854 today.

Underlying Indicators

Key indicators of risk in the wider outbreak continue to rise. The average number of new Delta cases is seven times higher than in the first week of Auckland at Alert Level 3. New cases with community exposure are six times higher, and daily unlinked cases are 19 times higher. Unlinked cases over the past fortnight are 26 times higher and today passed 300 for the first time. The number of managed active cases also passed 1,200 for the first time today.

Māori to become the most impacted demographic

Pacific Peoples are the most impacted demographic with 1,077 cases so far during the outbreak. However, Māori cases are rising three times quicker than Pacific cases. If this trend continues, the total number of Māori cases will pass the total for Pacific Peoples in about nine to ten days.

Projecting New Cases over the Next Week

The number of new cases in the wider outbreak rose 44% (382) to the week ending 18 October and 76% (677) this week.

An increase over the next week to 1 November of between 50% to 80% will mean another 1,000 to 1,200 new cases of which 450 to 550 will be Māori. Total Delta cases will reach 3,700 to 3,900. The total for Māori will be 1,300 to 1,400.

Māori Vaccination

The Health Service User index, which the Ministry of Health employs to calculate vaccination numbers, undercounts Māori by 7%. Adjusting for this undercount, 45.3% of Māori are double vaccinated. Another 19.1%

of Māori have had their first vaccine. Together, 64.4% of Māori have received at least one dose. Māori remain behind the rest of the population now on 82.9%.

Māori Health Provider heroes are working hard to close this gap. Over 115,000 Māori have received a first or second dose of the vaccine since 15 September. This 41.3% increase is more than double for the Pākehā population (20.0%).

The number of Māori who have received at least one vaccine (64.4%)  is 0.77 or 77% of the New Zealand total (83.9%), a rise of .25 or 25% since early August.