Assessing peaks for Covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths | Dr Rawiri Taonui

By Contributor

By Māori Covid-19 Analyst Dr Rawiri Taonui, in partnership with Te Ao Māori News.


Aotearoa saw 12,882 new community cases yesterday. There have been 592,229 cases in the Omicron outbreak since February 1.

Total cases since Covid-19 arrived in New Zealand passed the 600k milestone, yesterday reaching 610,687. The seven-day average for cases is 16,100.

The world total of Omicron cases peaked on January 26. Two months later, new cases remain well over twice as high as the peak of the Delta outbreak in August last year.

In Aotearoa, Omicron will take several more weeks or months before cases fall to late-January early-February levels of below 100 new cases per day.

Cases by ethnicity

There were 8,022 new cases in the Pākehā community yesterday. While this is a drop from the 12,613 new cases reported on March 22, Pākehā have had the highest number of cases for 36 consecutive days.

There were 2,429 new Māori cases yesterday. This represents a 50%-plus decrease from the peak of 5,332 cases on March 8. Māori have had the second-highest cases for 23 consecutive days.

Pacific Peoples cases have dropped by 87% since a peak of 5,783 on March 4.

Hospitalisations

There were 861 people in hospital with Covid-19 yesterday. This includes 21 in ICU/HDU.

The seven day average for hospitalisations is 905. Over the last six days, hospitalisations have plateaued to between 860 and 960.

Hospitalisations lag total case numbers. It will take between one to two weeks to see a further significant fall in hospitalisations.

Deaths

There were 11 deaths reported yesterday. This brings the total during the Omicron outbreak to 216.

The total deaths since Covid-19 arrived in Aotearoa are 269. The seven-day average for deaths is 13.

Deaths lag total case numbers and then hospitalisations.

Deaths will stay between one and 20 deaths per day with a steady levelling out after the first week of April.

Aotearoa is likely to see a peak in deaths in two to three weeks (April 12 to April 19), and somewhere between 290 and 360 total deaths (340 to 440 total deaths since Covid arrived in Aotearoa).

Kia noho haumaru, stay safe and self-sovereign.

Dr Rawiri Taonui.