By Māori Covid-19 Analyst Dr Rawiri Taonui, in partnership with Te Ao Māori News.
At the current seven-day rate of 193.9 new cases per day, there will be 13,500 cases by Christmas.
New cases today
- There are 194 new cases in the Delta outbreak today.
- Total Delta cases have passed the 6k mark with 6,167 cases.
- Total active cases passed the 4k mark reaching 4,051.
- Māori cases are rising both in number and percentage of all cases.
- Māori are the highest daily cases for 45 consecutive days.
- There have been more than 100 new Māori cases over the six days since Auckland went to Alert Level 3 Step 2 (last Thursday).
- More significantly, over those six days Māori have been more than 50% of total daily cases.
- The six highest daily Māori Delta cases have come in the last six days.
Māori cases last six days
- Friday: 108 Māori cases (53.7% of 201 new cases).
- Saturday: 103 (58.9% of 175 new cases).
- Sunday: 121 (58.5% of 207 new cases).
- Monday: 101 Māori cases (58.4% of 173 new cases).
- Tuesday: 134 Māori cases (60% of 222 new cases).
- Wednesday: 101 Māori cases (52% of 194 new cases).
- At the current 7-day rate of 107.4 new Māori cases per day, there will be 6,600 Māori cases by Christmas.
Active Māori cases and hospitalisations
- There are 1,912 active Māori cases.
- Māori are 47.2% of all active cases.
- The probability is high that Māori will become more than 50% of all active cases by the end of November.
- 110 Māori have been hospitalised.
- The probability is high that Māori will have the highest hospitalisations by the end of the first week in December.
Rates of infection and hospitalisation in New Zealand
- Unvaccinated persons are 66% of all positive cases and 73% of all hospitalisations.
- Unvaccinated persons are seven times more likely to be infected and 16 times more likely to be hospitalised.
- Fully vaccinated persons make up 10% of all infections and 4% of those hospitalised.
- The Pfizer vaccination provides 90% protection against infection and 95% protection against hospitalisation.
- The government announced a 10th Delta death today.
- The current death rate for Delta cases is one in every 211 cases.
- The current Māori death rate is one in 216 cases.
- The death rate is lower than last year when overall deaths were one in 101 and Māori deaths one in 42.
- The lower death rate is mainly because New Zealand has vaccinated high numbers of people over 60 years of age.
- The death rate will likely increase as more pressure comes on the health system.
Home isolation risk for Māori
- Approximately 2,200 active cases are isolating alongside 2,900 whānau and family in and around 1,500 households in New Zealand.
- The Ministry of Health has not released the ethnic data for this group. However, based on numbers, we can assume that a considerable proportion is Māori.
- The government and ministry do not have a home isolation strategy able to cope with numbers on this scale.
- Health authorities are meant to conduct inspections to check homes can provide care for the sick and separate and protect uninfected whānau.
- There are many reports that these checks are not occurring.
- Heath authorities are leaving communities and families to support themselves.
- There are numerous reports of people going hungry, sick people taking responsibility for their own care, people isolating themselves in tents and toileting in buckets in backyards to remain separate from and protect their whānau.
District Health Board Alert Levels (DHBs)
There are active cases in 10 district health boards. Last week upper Northland moved to Level 2. This week Waikato will move to Level 2. With four new cases in Northland spread across three cities and towns (Kaitāia, Dargaville and Whāngarei) and in the Waikato five new cases in four towns (Ōtorohanga, Te Kūiti, Huntly and Cambridge) ringed by the Lakes, MidCentral and Taranaki District Health Boards, which also have cases and low Māori vaccination rates, there will be a new surge of Māori cases across the Central North Island.
Unless something drastic occurs, there is a high probability that Delta will reach all North Island district health boards before Christmas.
Kia noho haumaru, stay safe.
Dr Rawiri Taonui.