National, Te Pāti Māori and ACT could form Government - Poll

By Will Trafford

For the first time since the 2020 general election, support for opposition parties in parliament has overtaken the labour-led government, meaning were an election held today National could lead the country with the support of ACT and Te Pati Māori.

The latest polling by Roy Morgan reveals support for the three opposition parties all rose in November, the lion’s share of that going to ACT, up to a record high of 17.5 percent of those polled. Te Pāti Māori hit its own 5 year high, up 1% to 3%, while National was up just 0.5 percent to 26.5%

The pollsters say a drop in confidence in the Government could be behind the swing to the opposition as Aotearoa’s largest city Tāmaki remained in an extended Covid-19 lockdown throughout the November polling window.

‘The long lockdown of New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland extended throughout the month of November and with international borders continuing to remain closed it appears these measures are finally wearing thin for New Zealanders. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 8pts to 101.5 in November – the lowest level for this index for well over thirteen years since July 2008 (91.5) during the middle of the Global Financial Crisis’ said Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.

Levine says the ‘long honeymoon’ for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may finally be coming to an end with support for Labour dropping to 36%, below their support at the 2017 Election (36.9%), for the first time.

‘Today’s Roy Morgan shows support continuing to drop for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party, down 3.5% points from October 2021, and now down 14% points from last year’s New Zealand Election to 36%. Support for coalition partners the Greens was unchanged at 10.5% in November.’ She said.

National’s leadership coup which ousted Judith Collins for former Air NZ CEO Christopher Luxon while the ‘big political event’ of the month, was unlikely the sole reason the party continues to languish in the mid-twenties as since last year’s Election support for the Nats has increased just 0.9% at a time support for ACT has more than doubled, up by 9.9% points to 17.5%.

‘Luxon has a big task ahead of him to regrow the National brand and increase its support. In his age group of men aged 50+ National is already the most widely supported party with 33.5% of the vote, but National trails badly in younger demographics’ said Levine.

‘Only 21.5% of men aged 18-49 support National, behind both Labour (23.5%) and Act NZ (30%). Amongst young women aged 18-49 National is even further behind with the support of only 20.5% of this age group – less than half the support of Labour (43.5%)’

‘It remains to be seen if Luxon, aged 51, can regain the support of these younger voters aged 18-49 who have drifted to other parties over the last few years. Amongst this age group Labour (33.5%) is over 10% points ahead of National (21%) with Act NZ (18.5%) and the Greens (15.5%) close behind.’ Levine added.