New political poll suggests Te Pāti Māori might not decide next government

By Kelvin McDonald

A new political poll suggests Te Pāti Māori would not be kingmaker if an election were held today.

Recent polls have indicated the party could decide the next government, However, the new Taxpayers Union Curia poll has National on 36.8 per cent (down one percentage point since the last poll in April) and able to form a government with Act on 10.9 per cent (up 2.5).

The poll has Labour down 2.6 percentage points on 34.2, no longer able to form a government with the Greens or with the added support of Te Pāti Māori, assuming either party were to agree to such an arrangement.

The Greens are 9.7 on this poll (up 0.3) and Te Pāti Māori are 2.4 per cent (down 1.2).

It is the first major poll since early 2020 to suggest a National-Act coalition could govern the country.

The poll was taken from May 4 to 11 and canvassed 1000 eligible voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent.