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National | ACT Party

Poll has Te Pāti Māori kingmakers for general election

Māori Party co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer speak to media at Parliament. Photo / Hagen Hopkins / Getty Images

Te Pāti Māori have again emerged as potential kingmakers to determine the outcome of October's general election.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll for May shows the two major coalitions almost neck and neck.

National and Act NZ maintains a slight lead at 45 per cent, a marginal increase of 0.5 per cent since April. The Labour/ Greens coalition stands at 43 per cent, reflecting a 1 per cent gain.

Te Pāti Māori appears in the driver's seat holding steady at 4.5 per cent support in the poll, given neither coalition is securing an outright majority.

A National/Act coalition would get 58 seats on these results, and a Labour/Greens coalition would squeak in at 56.

The six seats of Te Pāti Māori would determine the government's formation.

National dips

In terms of individual party support, the Nats have declined to their lowest level since December 2021, now standing at 31.5%. Conversely, Act has gained a point to reach 13.5 per cent.

Labour has secured a one per cent increase in support, standing at 31 per cent. The Greens have maintained their support at 12 per cent in May.

Roy Morgan was the closest poll result to the 2020 election result.

Amid the pandemic, Jacinda Ardern's Labour won a majority, with its best vote share in more than 70 years.

New leader and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has arrested a Labour slide in the polls under Ardern and still holds an edge over Luxon in preferred prime minister polling.

Some 54.5 per cent of Kiwis believed New Zealand was heading in the wrong direction, while 34.5 per cent viewed the country as heading in the right direction.

Public Interest Journalism