Results from a Curia Research poll of registered Tāmaki Makaurau voters confirm the seat is up for grabs.
It's a close race between Māori Party candidate John Tamihere and Labour's incumbent MP Peeni Henare. The MP leads, with 35% of respondents saying they intended to vote for him but John Tamihere was not far behind with 29%. Marama Davidson received 14% of the vote and 12% were undecided.
The preferred party for Tāmaki Makaurau is Labour with 57% of those polled. The Māori Party took 9%, 3% National, 7% Greens, 5% NZ First and 1% ACT. Some 11% were undecided and 5% refused to say.
Our poll asked if Labour were able to form the next government, which party would be the most preferred coalition. The Greens were most preferred at 54% and the Māori Party second with 42%.
The most important issues for Tāmaki Makaurau in order were:
Nearly one fifth - 19% of respondents - said someone in their household had lost their job due to Covid-19.
Just over half - 55% of respondents - said they would vote for the Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill and 29% against, with 15% undecided.
Some 50% of respondents said they would vote for the End of Life Choice Act and 34% against, with 16% undecided.
Polls were conducted by Curia Market Research from Tuesday, October 6 to Wednesday, October 7. A total of 500 voters were canvassed. Polling was by landline and mobile, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%.